A Few Thoughts on Trump

We’re now several months into the Trump presidency, and it's clear something historic is underway. This is all bigger than the usual Democrat versus Republican horse race politics. Trump is methodically reshaping international alliances, redefining trade relationships, aggressively pursuing territorial interests, and embedding his ideology throughout government institutions.

Just take a look at the use of Executive Orders. It’s unprecedented. Trump has signed 100 executive orders in his first two months, a pace far exceeding that of his predecessors.

I think it’s a deeply fascinating experiment. In a way, the Trump presidency reminds me of FDR. Both these leaders decided to radically reshape America and make large institutional changes. FDR dramatically expanded the federal government's role in American life, creating a vast administrative state to address economic insecurity and inequality. Trump, conversely, aims to dismantle much of that same administrative apparatus.

The methods share similarities too. FDR circumvented institutional resistance through unprecedented use of executive authority and by appointing transformational figures to key positions. Trump's approach, executive orders, strategic appointments of ideological change agents, and willingness to challenge established norms, follows the same playbook as FDR.

• FDR’s administration rolled out an unprecedented number of federal programs to combat the Depression.

• FDR proposed the Judicial Procedures Reform Bill, which would’ve allowed him to appoint up to six additional Supreme Court justices. This came after the Court struck down key New Deal legislation. The plan failed, but it left a lasting impression of power-grabbing.

• DR broke the two-term tradition set by George Washington, winning elections in 1932, 1936, 1940, and 1944. This led to the 22nd Amendment, limiting presidents to two terms, passed after his death.

• FDR forcibly relocated and incarcerated over 100,000 Japanese Americans during WWII, without due process or evidence of disloyalty.

Sounds familiar.

The Trump presidency could end badly or it could end well, but it does look like in four years many things will be different in America.

Five Observations on the Trump Presidency

1) Trump is Not the Same Man

One thing is clear, Donald Trump isn’t running the country the same way as he did in 2016. He’s changed. Do you remember his first term? It felt like a campy reality show. He seemed just happy to be there. He hired and fired staffers at an alarming rate and tweeted a thousand times a day. He just seemed obsessed with being accepted as a normal president. He promised a lot of things, but he didn’t really deliver.

So far, in 2 months he has done the opposite of the last term:

• Shut down The Department of Education

• Hired DOGE to cut government spending

• Cut most of the USAID grants

• Layoff thousands of Government contractors

• Give out $5 million gold cards for foreigners to buy legal status in America

• Terminate DEI

• Stop immigration at the border

• Implement tariffs

Unlike the first term he isn’t firing or hiring people in a chaotic way. He is way more serious. More consistent. Today's Trump displays strategic discipline. He's assembled appointees (Musk, RFK Jr., Lutnick, Hegseth) who share his vision and execute their mandates with autonomy and focus.

Maybe it’s almost getting assassinated or being put in jail that changed him. Maybe it’s the big deficit or China becoming a superpower. Who knows why things are different now. But they are.

2) Trump Doesn't Recognize Allies, He Recognizes Business Vendors.

It’s clear that Trump views international diplomacy through the lens of a business transaction. America is always the customer, and everyone else is just another vendor pitching their services. Diplomacy under Trump no longer hinges on shared history or values, instead, it’s about the immediate deal, best terms, lowest cost, highest advantage. He treats alliances as contracts subject to renegotiation. Allies become suppliers whose loyalty only extends as far as the latest invoice.

His Commerce Secretary lays out the vision that America is a Costco that people have to pay a membership fee to enter.

This vendor-customer dynamic keeps relationships perpetually tense. Every ally is suspected of inflating their prices or skimping on service. Commitments last only as long as the current contract, and renegotiation lurks around every corner. Allies, or should I say vendors are angry.

This has consequences, the unpredictability of a transactional relationships creates uncertainty and has forced much of Europe to unite. Canada is shocked and Europe is scrambling.

3) Trump is Serious About Expanding Territory

Almost every day of this Administration Trump has repeated the same thing, that he thinks it doesn’t make sense for Canada to be a sovereign nation and it should be the 51st state. Sure, it’s traditionally been a common joke in America that Canada is not a real country. But he isn’t making jokes now. He is stating plainly and in a sober tone. Every single day.

His point is that Canada relies on America for its economic survival and he's not wrong: around 80% of Canadian trade flows directly to America, and exports account for roughly a third of Canada’s GDP. The USA could easily cripple Canada’s economy with tariffs.

But why does he want to annex Canada and Greenland? The answer lies in hemispheric defense and the elephant in the room: China.

By absorbing Canada and Greenland, America gains enormous resources and strategic dominance, controlling the critical Northwest Passage and Arctic waters. Trump sees the Arctic Ocean as central to geopolitical advantage.

We're living in a period when nations are openly expanding borders again. Russia and Israel have recently made territorial claims. Annexation isn't taboo, historically, it's normal. Trump is merely returning America to an era where borders aren't just lines on maps but targets for growth. Will it happen? I don’t rule it out.

Steve Bannon openly explains this ambition.

4) Trump is Spreading Nationalism Across the World

One side effect of Trump's second term has been the acceleration of nationalist movements worldwide, not merely among fringe right-wing parties, but as mainstream political positions across ideological spectrums.

He isn’t trying to team up with right wing parties across the world like other politicians customarily have done.

Canada provides an example. A country long celebrated for its multicultural identity and international cooperation has pivoted toward economic protectionism. Canadian grocery chains now prominently feature "Canadian-made" products with nationalistic marketing campaigns, while public discourse increasingly focuses on protecting domestic industries and securing borders, rhetoric nearly unimaginable in pre-Trump Canadian politics.

Perhaps most remarkably, Germany,a nation that has carefully avoided assertions of military power since World War II is rewriting its constitution to enable €800 billion in debt-financed military spending. This dramatic reversal of Germany's decades-long pacifist stance signals how deeply nationalist priorities have penetrated even the most internationalist societies.

@bloombergpolitics

#Germany is planning a surge in #defense spending, taking on a far greater share of #Europe's defense. But as Alexander Weber explains, sh... See more

What distinguishes this wave from previous nationalist movements is its comprehensive nature. Rather than remaining confined to immigration policy or cultural identity, it permeates economic policy, defense strategy, trade relationships, and resource management. Nations increasingly frame their decisions through the lens of national advantage rather than multilateral cooperation or global stability.

Trump's America First policies is a fundamental reconsideration of the post-Cold War international order and its underlying assumptions about globalization and interdependence.

5) Retreating from Globalization

For seven decades, American foreign policy operated from an unwavering premise: global economic integration served American interests. This bipartisan orthodoxy envisioned a world where nations would specialize according to comparative advantage. America would dominate high-value services, innovation, and intellectual property while outsourcing manufacturing and production to lower-cost economies.

This globalization model delivered significant consumer benefits, an unprecedented amount of products. The average American gained access to an array of goods at price points that would have seemed impossible in a less integrated economy.

It also meant addiction to cheap labor.

Trump is changing that. He wants more things to be manufactured inside the United States. That means goods will become more expensive.

That’s because he doesn’t want to outsource manufacturing. Rather than simply offloading low-skill production, America transferred entire manufacturing ecosystems to countries like China, complete with the tacit knowledge, process innovations, and technical expertise that develop organically within production environments. They are building amazing products now.

@pushingpistons

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As Trump's Vice President accurately observed, "When you outsource your manufacturing, you inevitably outsource your innovation." China didn't merely replicate American production methods, they improved them. From electric vehicles to solar panels, battery technology to telecommunications equipment, the innovation advantage has shifted dramatically to those who maintained their manufacturing base.

The current administration represents the first significant challenge to this decades-old consensus.