Geography is Destiny

“Geography is not destiny, but it shapes everything we become.”
— Tim Marshall, Prisoners of Geography

When Donald Trump promised to "Make America Great Again," many people imagined a return to the 1980s-1990w or an idealized version of the 1950s. But it turns out, he wants to take us all the way back to 100 years ago when America maintained high tariffs and focused on domestic manufacturing.

Last week, on “Liberation day”, as he called it, he announced sky high tariffs for almost every country on earth that the US trades with.

Everyone was shocked. The Market went down fast. However, a week later, Trump paused the tariffs for 90 days, but kept a 10% tariff for every country, and then added a 125% tariff on China. This effectively ending trade between the two biggest nations in the world. These are extreme actions. Why is he doing all of this? He outlined 3 reasons for this sudden shift in American economic policy.

1) The US needs revenue.

It is deep in debt. Trump does not want to raise taxes or cut spending on entitlements. Tariffs offer a way to extract revenue from foreign countries seeking access to America's massive consumer market, which represents 30-40% of global spending power.

2) Isolate China 

The Trump administration is fearful about the rise of China as the second superpower in the world. Is China an enemy of the United States? Not today, but who knows what could happen tomorrow is the thinking. America has been the global leader since the end of World War 2 and it does not want to cede that position. In chart after chart, the rise of China is inevitable. They are the factory of the world.

3) Bring Manufacturing Back to America

Though America has prospered through global trade, the administration argues that the country has become dangerously dependent on foreign manufacturing. The goal isn't necessarily to create factory jobs (which would likely be automated),

but to restore America's industrial self-sufficiency so that we don’t have to ask another country for parts to a tank.

It’s Not About Economics

A lot of people are stunned. We’re going to go back to tariffs and making products again? Much of coastal America media is against this plan. It’s not surprise. There’s a historical tension in America's identity: is the U.S. primarily a continental power, focused on domestic industry and land-based strength, or a maritime power, thriving on global trade?

Throughout history, America has oscillated between these identities. It was created as an outgrowth of the United Kingdom which had a heavily maritime identity, full of trading and shipping lanes. So trade and maritime activity always been part of our DNA. But the land transformed us into a continental power. Into a nation that resembles China and Russia as much as the UK or the old Venice Republic.

This tension is always going to be there because of our geography. It may sound silly to say that geography determines how a nation acts, even I got a lot hate for tweeting about it.

Yet respected scholarship consistently says the same thing as me:

• Andrew Lambert, Seapower States 

• Robert D. Kaplan, Earning the Rockies 

• Tim Marshall, Prisoners of Geography 

Geography plays a profound role in shaping a nation’s character and behavior on the world stage​.

History shows a contrast between maritime powers, typically nations oriented toward the sea, and continental powers rooted in vast land domains.

In This Newsletter

1) The Continental Power: Vast territories transform nations from within, molding centralized governance, self-contained economies, and cultural narratives rooted in the homeland soil.

2) The Maritime Power: Sea-facing nations developed radically different societal structures, embracing trade, and naval supremacy as alternatives to territorial expansion.

3) America's Dual Nature: The United States uniquely blends these archetypes but it must decide soon what it will act like, as rising great power competition forces America to reconcile its continental resources with its maritime commitments.

4) Why Re-Manufacturing May Prevail: America's continental advantages create powerful gravitational forces pulling it toward domestic manufacturing revival.

The Continental Power

"Only certain cereals can create the tax base needed to support states, a dynamic that fosters centralization and expansion over fertile land." — James C. Scott, Against the Grain

The origin of the continental power goes back to the first states, they emerge from their relationship with land. Land is the central identity of the continental power. As James C. Scott explains, cereal agriculture created the foundation for centralized states, from ancient Akkad and Han China to modern Russia and China, by providing taxable, storable resources that funded bureaucracies and armies.

This agricultural foundation shaped not just economies but psychology. Continental powers develop a distinctive worldview, one where security comes from controlling territory rather than facilitating exchange. Their leaders see land as the ultimate source of wealth and power, driving expansion into contiguous territories. Even their myths and national narratives reflect this terrestrial focus, stories of taming wilderness, conquering frontiers, and transforming nature through human will.

However, continental powers did not remain purely agricultural. The vast territories they controlled offered abundant natural resources, coal, iron, timber, necessary to transition into industrial economies.

"Russia's vast territories contain enormous natural wealth, which has allowed it to industrialize from within, developing a self-sufficient economy designed to weather isolation. Its geography has taught its leaders to value autarky over integration, security over openness." - Tim Marshall's "Prisoners of Geography"

Same thing happened in the early history of the United States, where extensive internal resources fueled rapid industrialization, transforming America from an agrarian republic into a manufacturing superpower.

Thus, continental powers inherently prioritize internal development, economic self-sufficiency, and protectionist policies. Manufacturing becomes a strategic imperative, vital not only economically but also politically and militarily.

This focus on internal strength and centralized control often contrasts sharply with maritime sensibility of city-states that thrive on open trade and commerce. Historical city-states like Venice, Genoa, or modern examples such as Singapore exemplify trade-driven economies.

The Maritime Power

Subscribe to Premium to read the rest.