Never Deny a Rumor

Maybe it's true, maybe it isn't, but the legend goes like this:

Former President Lyndon B. Johnson was in a tough congressional race and decided to hit his opponent with a nasty a rumor, that the guy's a pig-fucker. His campaign manager was shocked, he tried to pull him back, he says, “Lyndon, you know he doesn’t do that!” But Johnson shoots back, "I know. I just want to make him deny it."

Lyndon Johnson understood how information works.

Getting someone to deny an accusation effectively amounts to nine-tenth of an admission in the public mind. Think about it in your own life. When you know something is not true you don’t deny it. You don’t say anything and move on. To deny an accusation or rumor acts as a signal to any third party watching.

You can even work out a rough rule around this phenomenon. Look out for denials. It can sometimes act as a sense of admission to the deed rather than innocence.

Israel and the War on Hamas in Gaza

We can see this principal at work in the recent case with Israel’s war on Gaza.

Take the recent example of Israel's conflict in Gaza. Throughout my life, Israel has consistently downplayed civilian casualties in its conflicts with the Palestinians, often justifying this stance by arguing that urban warfare in their fight against terrorism necessitates high civilian losses.

Following the terrorist attacks on October 7th, everyone expected a brutal Israeli retaliation—and indeed, it resulted in numerous civilian deaths, a familiar outcome. Many civilians have died. But that’s not new.

What has changed this time around? For the first time, a global outcry has emerged, with protests unfolding even on college campuses across America.

This international condemnation, and later case brought to the International Criminal Court has cornered Israel, compelling it to publicly deny accusations of committing genocide.

This denial, however, resonates deeply, amplifying the accusations and leading many to view the denial as an unintentional admission of guilt. This dynamic marks a pivotal moment where the nature of the denial itself intensifies the global response.

In This Newsletter

Our engagement with information today is fascinating and complex. We're inundated with data at every turn. Here’s a closer look at how this impacts us:

1) The Transparency Effect: The more things improve the worse they look. Before the internet, governments had total control of information. In 2024 things are more transparent, so we see imperfections.

2) The Annoyance of Nitpickers? Why do we have such a strong aversion to nitpickers? There might be an evolutionary explanation behind our disdain for those who obsess over minor details.

The Transparency Effect

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