War is Back

The world once more finds itself on the precipice of conflict. Over the past year, we've witnessed an unparalleled resurgence of hostilities in regions where tensions were thought to be either dormant or resolved. As the globe becomes increasingly interconnected, the ripples from any one of these clashes have the potential to escalate. Let's delve into recent events.

Israel-Palestine: On October 7, militants breached Israel's robust border defenses and infiltrated deep into Israeli land. Once inside, Hamas fighters were responsible for the deaths of over 1,300 individuals, encompassing both civilians and military personnel. Israeli officials also report that up to 150 people were taken hostage. Israel responded with a massive assault on Gaza. Israel’s has killed at least 2,329 people in Gaza, and more than 9,000 injured. Over 400,000 people have been displaced, the UN has said. The war in Gaza has just begun. There will be tens of thousands dead in the coming months

There's a clear generational distinction in perceptions of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict between those who were raised with traditional TV media and those who grew up with the internet. The influences of the 20th-century closed media ecosystem still linger. As successive generations become more internet-centric, perspectives are changing. I recall my own upbringing in the 20th century; Palestinian advocacy was notably absent on TV, whereas causes like Tibet or South Africa were highlighted. In contrast, today, pro-Palestinian rallies are prevalent in cities worldwide

Azerbaijan-Armenia. On September 19, Baku initiated a significant military offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh, branding it as an "anti-terrorist operation." Despite being brief, spanning only 24 hours, the assault achieved Azerbaijan's objective: the local defense forces surrendered. Five days after this, Baku reopened the Lachin Corridor, the sole route linking Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia. Azerbaijan had blocked this corridor for nearly a year. The reopening enabled 120,000 Karabakh Armenians to escape to Armenia, and it appears unlikely they will return. The US Secretary of State has even warned another war is possible soon. Armenians have been in this area for thousands of years. And now they are all gone.

Ukraine - Russia. The war in Ukraine has been raging for 2 years with no end in sight. The current map hasn’t moved much in 18 months. There is no reason why this conflict will not continue for years. It may settle on Ukraine handing over these eastern provinces to Russia unless they achieve a breakthrough.

Serbia-Kosovo. Serbia is amassing its military presence along its frontier with Kosovo. The latter's sovereignty remains a bone of contention ever since the U.S. took action against Serbia in the 1990s. While the U.S. and a select group of allies uphold Kosovo's independence, nations like Serbia, Russia, China, and a handful of European counterparts do not recognize Kosovo.

Africa Coup Wave. This year, democratic governments in Guinea, Gabon, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger all were overthrown by their own military. There is speculations the Russians or Chinese are behind this wave but no one knows for sure.

Taiwan-China. After the Chinese civil war (1927-1949), the defeated Kuomintang (KMT) retreated to Taiwan, while the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) established the People's Republic of China (PRC) on the mainland. Since then, the PRC has considered Taiwan a part of its territory, even though Taiwan has operated as a separate entity.

North Korea - South Korea. 3 days ago North Korea warned South Korea of “catastrophic circumstances” after the USS Ronald Reagan and its battle group docked at the South Korean port of Busan.

And Many More other Conflicts:

In This Newsletter

1) Why Are All These Conflicts Erupting Now? After the 20th century, the dominance of American power on the global stage began to slightly wane. This decline in unequivocal U.S. hegemony has had profound implications for global geopolitics.

2) The Rise of a Multi-Regional World. People were shocked to see Russia invade Ukraine. A land war in Europe? No one expected it. But even more shocking was that China, Iran and India supported the war. The same thing just happened with Israel and Gaza. There is now a bloc of countries who are jostling for dominance in their respective regions and not particularly aligned with the US.

3) American Isolationism: There is a strong tradition inside of America to refrain fro too many foreign wars. Even today, you can see public support for funding Ukraine going down. Now, the US announced funding for Israel for its’ Gaza War. What’s next?

4) Pax Romana: If the world is moving outside of the When people refer to "Pax Romana," they are referencing the "Roman Peace." This term describes a period of relative peace and stability across the Roman Empire that lasted for about 200 years. It began with the reign of Augustus Caesar in 27 B.C. and typically is considered to have ended around A.D. 180 with the death of Marcus Aurelius. After this era a surge of battles happened across the Empire between warring regions.

Why Is This Happening Now

What we're observing goes beyond isolated events; it's indicative of a substantial change in global trends. The longstanding era of sole American rule, which stood for a time of comparative peace shaped by the US's power, appears to be waning. Signs are pointing towards the end of its prime, with it being completely diminished in some regions.

Replacing it is a global stage that's transitioning to a multi-regional framework, characterized by several potent players instead of one supreme leader. As countries and world leaders adapt to this shift, there's a rising awareness of the potential complexities and unrest that may emerge.

The primary explanation for this era of peace lies in the American dominance that acted as a linchpin for global equilibrium. Whenever a country considered aggressive actions, the looming possibility of U.S. intervention, backed by its allies, deterred such ambitions. The U.S., along with its partners, aimed to uphold the prevailing world order, essentially casting America as the world's watchdog. With the U.S. and its allies on watch, any global provocation carried hefty consequences.

You can see the drop in global deaths in wars during this era on a long timeline after World War 2.

The graphic illustrates that before the advent of modern nation-states, numerous wars occurred, but none approached the magnitude of World War 1 or 2. The danger in our current era is that nations have become so large and centralized that wars with millions of casualties could erupt suddenly. Compare this to past skirmishes between Italian city-states and the potential wars today, involving vast alliances representing billions of people.

Conflicts Were Frozen

Conflicts were frozen not solved

American dominance deterred smaller nations from escalating conflicts due to the looming threat of American intervention. However, this often led to conflicts being suppressed rather than truly resolved. They were just frozen. Waiting until the time American power started to slowly decline or if there was another collection of power to provide support.

The Rise of the Multi-Regional World

Subscribe to Premium to read the rest.